Incentive Sustainability Calculator
Model whether a reward program is supported by genuine demand or risks becoming recurring reward-linked selling pressure.
Pick a scenario to understand the model, then replace it with your own reward plan. Values are planning assumptions, not live project data.
Design a reward program
Enter dollar-value and token assumptions for weekly incentives, recipient behavior and the liquidity expected to absorb selling pressure.
Reward distribution
Estimate the weekly value that recipients can receive and potentially sell.
Current price for a live program, or planned opening price for a proposed reward token.
How many reward tokens recipients are scheduled to receive weekly.
Expected selling behavior
Estimate how much reward value may reach the market as selling pressure.
Your estimate of the portion recipients may sell rather than hold or use.
Buying demand not paid for by your treasury, incentives or support wallet.
Market support
Measure reward-linked selling against the liquidity available to absorb it.
Total value of both sides of the primary reward-token pool.
Incentive sustainability verdict
Liquidity-threatening incentives
Expected weekly reward-linked selling materially exceeds modeled demand and may be large enough to destabilize the available liquidity.
Scenario being tested
Distribute $1,000 of rewards weekly; make $1,000 immediately sellable; model $600 of reward-linked selling; and compare it with $200 of organic weekly buying.
Weekly reward value
$1,000
Expected reward-linked selling
$600
Net weekly selling pressure
$400
0.33×
Organic buys divided by expected reward-linked selling.
-25.62%
Modeled movement from net weekly selling pressure.
$4,800
Cumulative unabsorbed pressure, not a predicted price decline.
-8.93%
Modeled stress if the largest recipient sells their assumed share.
Biggest pressure driver
Weekly unabsorbed selling
Expected reward-linked selling remaining after modeled organic buying and treasury support is the primary pressure.
$400
Weekly flow summary
Recommended actions
- Reduce weekly sellable rewards, improve organic demand or add approximately $25,702 of balanced liquidity to keep modeled weekly pressure within your 5% tolerance.
- Consider vesting or delayed claims so less reward value becomes sellable immediately each week.
- Limit reward concentration: the modeled largest-recipient selling scenario exceeds your tolerance and would require roughly $4,211 of additional balanced liquidity to absorb through liquidity alone.
Beta software: Halven provides analysis and disclosure tools, not financial advice, investment recommendations, safety guarantees or custody services.